Oil: what Algeria is really defending — 1 million barrels, 106 dollars, and a budget built on 60

Y. Bensalem — Alger, Algérie — 2026-10-15

On Monday 12 October 2026, the Minister of State for Hydrocarbons, Mohamed Arkab, took part in Riyadh in the consultative meeting of OPEC and OPEC+ ministers, on the sidelines of Energy Week. The press release published the following day speaks of “stability of the world oil market” and “security of energy supplies”. Those words are accurate; they do not say the essential, which comes down to three figures: a quota of 1 million barrels per day, a barrel at 106.65 dollars, a budget built on 60.

1. The figures, at their source

Two lines are enough to frame the debate: the market pays 106.65 dollars for what the budget valued at 60 — a gap of nearly 47 dollars per barrel, calculated by us.

2. What Algeria asked for — and what it obtained

What it asked for: the maintenance of the collective OPEC+ framework, and the inclusion of maritime risk on the agenda. The press release links the meeting to the 68th JMMC of 4 October 2026 and to the 41st OPEC/non-OPEC ministerial meeting of 7 June 2026.

What it obtained: two points in black and white. The security of international navigation routes, “fundamental to the stability of world energy markets”. And the cost of transport: freight and insurance have risen “to unprecedented levels, exceeding one third of the value of the goods transported”, which “hampers the transport of crude oil” and “increases inflationary pressures”; strengthened consultation with the IEF and the IEA.

What it did not obtain — and did not ask for at this stage: no quota decision. The meeting of 12 October was consultative. The quota was already set: 1 million barrels/day, maintained for October (decision of 6 September) then for November (decision of 4 October, by videoconference of the seven countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman). Next meeting: 1 November 2026.

3. The quota: 1,007,000 barrels — and 6,000 more

The figure deserves to be broken down: it is small. The gradual unwinding of the voluntary cuts decided in April 2023 continued in stages: a collective adjustment of 188,000 barrels/day, of which 6,000 for Algeria, brought the Algerian quota to 1 million barrels/day. In October, the JMMC assessed the participants' compliance for July and August 2026 and welcomed “the efforts made” to honour commitments.

In other words: Algeria is defending a ceiling, not an expansion. Six thousand barrels a day is what it gained at the end of the unwinding of the cuts — and what it now defends, month after month, by keeping its production unchanged rather than asking for more. What this increase weighs in revenue: not found (see § 5).

4. What the price changes — and what freight takes from it

The gain is arithmetic. The 2026 finance law was built on a reference barrel at 60 dollars and an expected oil taxation of 2,698 billion dinars. At 106.65 dollars, the gap is several tens of dollars per barrel. For a published order of magnitude — and not one calculated by us — the economist Abdelrahmi Bessaha, a former IMF adviser, uses in a note of August 2026 a barrel at 85 dollars annual average: the State would collect 400 to 500 billion dinars more, i.e. 3 to 3.8 billion dollars. The Reuters poll of August 2026 expected a barrel above 80 dollars in 2026, i.e. “a gap of not less than 20 dollars” with the official reference price.

But the net gain is smaller than the displayed gain: Algerian gas does not follow Brent faithfully — “imperfect transmission of oil prices to gas revenues” —, the volumes exported may fall back, freight and insurance are becoming more expensive, and imports are becoming more expensive at the same pace. The rise in the State's total revenue is estimated at only about 5%. The note warns: revenue “should in no case finance new permanent expenditure”.

What does not change: the framework. In Oran, at NAPEC 2026 (5-7 October), Arkab repeated that gas “will continue to play an important role in the energy mix”. In Riyadh, he invited Kuwaiti companies to take part in the “Algeria Bid Round 2026”.

5. What this article does not establish

• Hydrocarbon export revenue for 2026: not found — the 31 billion dollars published cover the first nine months of 2025.
• Actual production compared with the quota: not found — only the quota (1 million b/d) and the marketed production (128 million TOE at the end of September 2025) are published.
• Official gain expected at 106.65 dollars: not found — the published estimates concern an annual average of 80 dollars (Reuters poll) or 85 dollars (Bessaha note).
• Outcome of the meeting of 1 November 2026: not known to date.

The press release of 12 October speaks of “market stability” and “security of supplies”. It cites only one figure: freight and insurance, above one third of the value of the goods. Neither the quota — 1 million barrels per day, unchanged in October as in November — nor the price — 106.65 dollars — appear in it. The 2026 budget, for its part, was built on 60 dollars. A text on the oil market that cites neither its quota nor its price does not describe the market: it describes its silence.

Y. Bensalem — Alger, Algérie

📚 COMPLETE BIBLIOGRAPHY (rule no. 19)

1. Radio Algérienne (fr), « OPEP+ : Arkab prend part à une réunion consultative consacrée à la stabilité du marché pétrolier et à la sécurité des approvisionnements », 13 October 2026, 06:59, APS source — ministry press release: meeting of 12 October in Riyadh on the sidelines of IEF17 and the 25th World Petroleum Congress; follow-up to the 68th JMMC of 4 October 2026; reaffirmation of the 41st ministerial meeting of 7 June 2026; freight and insurance “exceeding one third of the value of the goods transported”; recourse to the IEF and the IEA — https://news.radioalgerie.dz/fr/node/96336

2. Radio Algérienne (en), same press release in English — https://news.radioalgerie.dz/en/node/96361

3. Radio Algérienne (fr), « Pétrole : le Brent à 106,65 dollars le baril », 13 October 2026, 07:14 — North Sea Brent, December delivery, +1.84% at $106.65; WTI, November delivery, +2.06% at $93.74 — https://news.radioalgerie.dz/fr/node/96340

4. Radio Algérienne (fr), « Opep+ : l'Algérie et six autres pays maintiennent leur niveau de production inchangé en octobre », 6 September 2026, 14:59 — press release of the Ministry of Hydrocarbons: decision by videoconference with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman and Russia; “Algeria's production quota will thus remain set at 1 million barrels per day for the month of October” — https://news.radioalgerie.dz/fr/node/93775

5. ENTV (ar), « الجزائر وست دول أخرى تقرر الإبقاء على مستويات إنتاجها دون تغيير لشهر نوفمبر », 4 October 2026 — production unchanged for November, level maintained “1 million barrels/day”; 68th JMMC: assessment of the countries' compliance for July and August 2026 — https://www.entv.dz/ar/news/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%A6%D8%B1-%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%A3%D8%AE%D8%B1%D9%89-%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%B1%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%A8%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A5%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%A7-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%BA%D9%8A%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D9%84%D8%B4%D9%87%D8%B1-%D9%86%D9%88%D9%81%D9%85%D8%A8%D8%B1

6. Akashvani / newsonair.gov.in (en), « OPEC+ Seven Countries Decide to Maintain September 2026 Oil Production Quotas for November », 4 October 2026, 19:22 — the seven countries (including Algeria) maintain their September quotas for November; next meeting on 1 November — https://newsonair.gov.in/opec-seven-countries-decide-to-maintain-september-2026-oil-production-quotas-for-november/

7. Horizons (fr), « OPEP+ : Le quota de production de l'Algérie relevé à 1,007 million de b/j », August 2026 — collective adjustment of 188,000 b/d from September, +6,000 b/d for Algeria; completion of the unwinding of the April 2023 voluntary cuts; reactions of two Algerian economists (Ahmed El Hidoussi, Farès Habbache) — https://www.horizons.dz/2026/08/opep-le-quota-de-production-de-lalgerie-releve-a-1007-million-de-b-j/

8. Le Jeune Indépendant (fr), « Réunion de l'OPEP+ : L'Algérie augmente sa production de 6 000 barils par jour » — collective adjustment of 188,000 b/d, Algerian share 6,000 b/d, after the 41st OPEC/non-OPEC ministerial meeting — https://www.jeune-independant.net/reunion-de-lopep-lalgerie-augmente-sa-production-de-6-000-barils-par-jour/

9. El Bilad (ar), « عرقاب: 31 مليار دولار صادرات و13 اكتشافًا جديدًا للمحروقات.. و129 مليار دينار ميزانية قطاع الطاقة لسنة 2026 », 25 October 2025 — Arkab before the APN finance committee (PLF 2026): export revenue 31 billion $ and marketed production 128 million TOE at the end of September 2025; Algerian crude at $71/barrel (−15%); oil taxation 2,834 billion DA (82% of the 2025 finance law); 2026 forecast of 193 million TOE (+2%); reference price of $60/barrel and oil taxation of 2,698 billion DA; sector budget of 129 billion DA — https://www.elbilad.net/economique/%D8%B9%D8%B1%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%A8-31-%D9%85%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%8813-%D8%A7%D9%83%D8%AA%D8%B4%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%A7-%D8%AC%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A7-%D9%84%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AD%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%88129-%D9%85%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%AF%D9%8A%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B2%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%82%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%A9-%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%86%D8%A9-2026-141774

10. APS (fr), « PLF2026 : Cadrage macroéconomique à moyen terme », 14 October 2025 — presentation of the 2026 finance bill by the Minister of Finance Abdelkrim Bouzred before the APN finance and budget committee — https://www.aps.dz/fr/economie/banque-et-finances/mgqxsx6g-plf2026-cadrage-macroeconomique-a-moyen-terme

11. Maghreb Emergent (fr), « Pétrole à 85 dollars : jusqu'à 3,8 milliards de dollars de recettes en plus pour l'Algérie », 26 August 2026 — note by Abdelrahmi Bessaha, former IMF adviser: at $85/barrel annual average, +400 to 500 billion dinars ≈ +3 to 3.8 billion dollars; State total revenue +5%; “imperfect transmission of oil prices to gas revenues”; rising freight and insurance; caution about the financing of permanent expenditure — https://maghrebemergent.news/fr/petrole-a-85-dollars-jusqua-38-milliards-de-dollars-de-recettes-en-plus-pour-lalgerie/

12. Sahm Media (ar), « 20 دولارا فوق الحسابات.. مداخيل إضافية بالعملة الصعبة تنتطر الجزائر قبل نهاية 2026 », 1 September 2026 — reference price of the 2026 finance law: $60/barrel; Reuters poll of August 2026: a barrel above $80 in 2026, a gap “of not less than 20 dollars”; traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sharply reduced — https://www.sahm-media.dz/20-%d8%af%d9%88%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%a7-%d9%81%d9%88%d9%82-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ad%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d9%85%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%ae%d9%8a%d9%84-%d8%a5%d8%b6%d8%a7%d9%81%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%a8%d8%a7/

13. Radio Algérienne (fr), « Arkab examine à Ryadh avec son homologue koweïtien les moyens de renforcer la coopération bilatérale », 12 October 2026, 15:02 — OPEC/OPEC+ cooperation; invitation to Kuwaiti companies to invest in Algeria and to take part in the “Algeria Bid Round 2026” — https://news.radioalgerie.dz/fr/node/96299

14. AL24 News (fr), « Arkab : le gaz naturel continuera de jouer un rôle important dans le mix énergétique », 5 October 2026 — speech at the opening of NAPEC 2026 (Oran, 5-7 October): gas as a source of flexibility and a lever of industrial value creation; theme of the edition, “from energy transition to energy addition” — https://al24news.dz/fr/arkab-le-gaz-naturel-continuera-de-jouer-un-role-important-dans-le-mix-energetique/

⚠️ Published reservations.

(1) The only two values calculated by the editorial team are flagged: the gap between the Brent of 13 October ($106.65) and the reference price of the 2026 budget ($60), i.e. nearly 47 dollars per barrel — that is a subtraction, not an official figure; and the setting of the quota against the price, which appears in no public document.

(2) Hydrocarbon export revenue for 2026: not found. The figure of 31 billion dollars covers the first nine months of 2025. We do not extrapolate it.

(3) Algeria's actual production compared with its quota: not found. No source consulted publishes effective production against the ceiling of 1 million b/d. We do not confuse a quota with a production.

(4) Official gain expected at $106.65: not found. The only published estimates concern annual averages of $80 (Reuters poll cited by Sahm Media) and $85 (Bessaha note). We do not calculate in the ministry's place.

(5) The press release of 12 October is a consultation text, not a decision. It sets neither quota nor price: the meeting was consultative, and the November decision had been taken on 4 October. We say so in § 2 instead of letting an announcement be believed.

(6) Two adjustment stages, two sources. Horizons dates the 188,000 b/d adjustment “from September”; Le Jeune Indépendant places it “from July 2026”. We publish the result — quota raised to 1 million b/d, Algerian share 6,000 b/d — and we flag the divergence of dates instead of settling it.

(7) Freight and insurance “exceeding one third”: a figure from a press release. It is quoted as it stands, with its source and its timestamp; no breakdown by route or type of cargo is published. It does not relate specifically to Algerian exports — we do not present it as such.

(8) The budget figures date from October 2025 (presentation of the 2026 finance bill) and relate to forecasts. They are not outturn. The oil taxation of 2,698 billion dinars is a forecast, not a collection.

(9) No source opened here establishes a link between the tension in the Middle East, the barrel price and an Algerian decision. We describe dated facts, not a causality.

(10) No judgment on a people, a nation or a religion is made in this dossier. The article deciphers public figures, quotas and policies. No insult; the vocabulary proscribed by the editorial team does not appear in it.

⚠️ PRECISION ON THE FIGURES (added on 14/10/2026 on the instruction of the editor-in-chief). The figures are written in full — “1 million barrels/day” — so that they can be understood without calculation. The exact value of the Algerian quota is 1.007 million barrels/day, i.e. ≈ 1,007,000 barrels/day (sources: L'Algérie Aujourd'hui, Horizons of 06/09/2026, Maghreb Info of 04/10/2026). To give the scale: Saudi Arabia produces about 11 million barrels/day — ten times the Algerian quota. A figure that can be misread is a figure badly written.